Fenerbahçe
vs
Eyupspor
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Fenerbahçe are the model's most likely winner at 75.1%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 13.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Fenerbahçe -2
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Fenerbahçe: M. Asensio (Muscle Injury), J. Oosterwolde (Achilles Tendon Injury), M. Asensio (Muscle Injury), J. Oosterwolde (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Eyüpspor: A. Sabiri (Injury), I. Taskin (Injury), A. Sabiri (Injury), I. Taskin (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W W L D
- Away: L L W L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-17 · Fenerbahçe · 3-3 · Eyüpspor
- 2025-12-20 · Eyüpspor · 0-3 · Fenerbahçe
- 2025-05-18 · Fenerbahçe · 2-1 · Eyüpspor
- 2024-12-20 · Eyüpspor · 1-1 · Fenerbahçe
Match Preview
Fenerbahçe enter this home fixture as the clear class side, and the overall match profile strongly favours them. They sit near the top of the standings, have the more dangerous attack, and have already shown they can control this matchup; Eyüpspor were beaten 3-0 in the most recent league meeting between the two. That matters because it confirms the gap in quality is not theoretical.
Eyüpspor arrive in poor shape, with just one win in their recent run and a string of defeats around it. Their attack has been blunt, and their away numbers are especially worrying. Fenerbahçe have had mixed results by their own standards, but the home side still carry far more threat and more ways to break a compact opponent down. Injuries do take some shine off the picture - Fenerbahçe are missing M. Asensio and J. Oosterwolde, while Eyüpspor are without A. Sabiri and I. Taskin - yet the overall depth advantage remains firmly with the hosts.
The main caveat is that a heavy handicap always requires a dominant scoreline, not just a win. That is a stronger ask than the base match forecast, even though the model still makes Fenerbahçe the overwhelming favourite. The likely route is through control, territory, and sustained pressure rather than a wild shootout, and if they score early, the margin can widen quickly against a side that struggles to respond.
Eyüpspor’s best hope is to keep the game narrow for as long as possible, but their recent defensive record suggests that becomes difficult once Fenerbahçe settle into their rhythm. This feels like a fixture where the hosts dictate almost everything.
ScoreCast Pick
Fenerbahçe -2 • Odds 1.95 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.