FC Dallas
vs
Portland Timbers
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
FC Dallas are the model's most likely winner at 52.6%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
FC Dallas win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.90
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -5.4%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 10:59 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- FC Dallas: Daniel (Hamstring Injury), A. A. Julio Santos (Injury), O. Urhoghide (Yellow Cards), Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury), P. Musa (Upper-Body Injury), Daniel (Hamstring Injury), A. A. Julio Santos (Injury)
- Portland Timbers: A. Aravena (Hip Injury), B. Bye (Leg Injury), J. Caicedo (Thigh Injury), J. Mosquera (Foot Injury), T. Muse (Wrist Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L D W W
- Away: W D L W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-23 · Portland Timbers · 2-2 · FC Dallas
- 2025-09-28 · Portland Timbers · 2-2 · FC Dallas
- 2025-08-10 · FC Dallas · 2-0 · Portland Timbers
- 2024-10-06 · Portland Timbers · 0-0 · FC Dallas
- 2024-07-05 · FC Dallas · 3-2 · Portland Timbers
Match Preview
FC Dallas host Portland Timbers in a matchup between two sides that can score, but one that still leans towards the home team. Dallas have put together a strong season, with 11 wins, 7 draws and only 6 losses, and they have generally been reliable in Frisco. Portland’s numbers are respectable in patches, yet their away form remains less convincing than Dallas’ home standard, and that is often the deciding factor in a pairing like this.
The standings also help frame the contest. Dallas are right in the upper part of the table and continue to look like a side capable of banking points at the sharp end of the season. Portland are competitive enough to trouble opponents, but they have been more variable, and their away defensive record is not always strong enough to sustain pressure for 90 minutes. The visitors do carry enough attacking threat to make this interesting, which is why a straightforward clean, low-event script would be too optimistic.
Injuries are worth noting on both sides. Dallas are missing Daniel, A. A. Julio Santos and O. Urhoghide, with Geovane Jesus and P. Musa also questionable. Portland are without A. Aravena, B. Bye and J. Caicedo. Those absences reduce some of the fine margins, but neither side is short of enough structure to expect a complete collapse. Dallas still look the more settled unit, especially at home.
The recent head-to-head record points in the same direction. These meetings have often been tight, including two draws in Portland, but Dallas have also beaten the Timbers at home and have shown they can manage the matchup when playing on their own pitch. The most likely outcome remains an FC Dallas win, even if Portland’s scoring ability makes it a contest rather than a procession.
ScoreCast Pick: FC Dallas win
ScoreCast Pick
FC Dallas win • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 10:59 CET.