FC Basel 1893
vs
FC Sion
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
FC Basel 1893 are the model's most likely winner at 48.3%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
FC Basel 1893 win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This selection clears ScoreCast's minimum probability-edge and expected-value thresholds at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 48.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.07
- Available odds
- 2.50
- Expected value
- +20.9%
Odds are valid as of September 1, 2026, 11:41 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L W W D
- Away: L W W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-26 · FC Basel 1893 · 0-2 · FC Sion
- 2026-02-12 · FC Sion · 2-0 · FC Basel 1893
- 2026-01-18 · FC Basel 1893 · 1-1 · FC Sion
- 2025-08-30 · FC Sion · 0-1 · FC Basel 1893
- 2025-03-01 · FC Basel 1893 · 2-0 · FC Sion
Match Preview
FC Basel 1893 arrive with more momentum, a better position in the table and a recent home head-to-head edge over FC Sion. Basel’s return of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss is the cleaner form line, while Sion’s 2 wins and 2 losses suggests a side capable of competing but less reliable over 90 minutes.
At this stage of the season, Basel’s standing also matters. They are already among the early front-runners and have looked the more complete team in the opening weeks. Sion are not far behind, but they have not matched Basel’s consistency or depth. That difference becomes more important at St. Jakob-Park, where Basel have enough structure to force opponents into long defensive spells.
The head-to-head record is mixed enough to keep this interesting, but Basel have the more useful recent home result: a 2-0 win over Sion earlier this year, and another 2-0 success in the previous season. Sion did win the reverse fixture in the championship group, so this is not a one-sided rivalry, yet Basel’s stronger home pattern is difficult to ignore. With no injuries reported for either side, the squads should be close to full strength, leaving the football itself to decide the outcome.
The model forecast points to a fairly competitive game rather than a blowout, with 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0 all sitting near the top of the score possibilities. That fits Basel well: they do not need to dominate every phase to get the job done, only to make their home control count. Basel are the likelier winners, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is FC Basel 1893 win.
ScoreCast Pick
FC Basel 1893 win • Odds 2.50 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 1, 2026, 11:41 CET.