Everton
vs
Ipswich
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Everton are the model's most likely winner at 54.9%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 10.9% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Everton -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Everton: C. Norgaard (Injury), M. Rohl (Injury), C. Norgaard (Injury), M. Rohl (Injury)
- Ipswich: J. Taylor (Knee Injury), Emersonn (Muscle Injury), A. Matusiwa (Muscle Injury), J. Taylor (Knee Injury), Emersonn (Muscle Injury), A. Matusiwa (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D D D
- Away: W L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-05-03 · Everton · 2-2 · Ipswich
- 2024-10-19 · Ipswich · 0-2 · Everton
Match Preview
Everton head into this Premier League meeting with a decent platform, sitting level on points with Ipswich after four games, but with a slightly more controlled profile. Their start has been built on resilience rather than fireworks: just one win, but also three draws, and that ability to avoid defeat is often valuable in a match like this at Goodison Park.
Ipswich arrive with more volatility in their numbers. Two wins from four shows they can threaten, yet two defeats and a heavy goals-against tally suggest they can be exposed when pressed. The injury list does not help either side, but Everton’s absences look manageable compared with Ipswich carrying doubt around Emersonn and A. Matusiwa as well as the already confirmed loss of J. Taylor. That could matter against a home side who usually benefit from familiarity and territory.
The recent head-to-head meetings also lean Everton’s way in practical terms. They drew 2-2 at Goodison Park in May, but Everton had already beaten Ipswich 2-0 away before that. Those games suggest the Toffees have found enough ways to control this matchup, even if Ipswich are capable of making it awkward.
The broader numbers point to a tight contest rather than a runaway. Everton’s home structure has been solid, while Ipswich have scored enough to stay alive in games. The model’s goal projection suggests Everton are the more likely side to edge it, but not necessarily by a wide margin, which fits the sense of a home team that can win through pressure, set pieces, and a narrow margin.
A straight Everton win remains the likeliest result, but the stronger angle asks for a little more from the hosts in what should still be a competitive fixture. ScoreCast Pick: Everton -0.75.
ScoreCast Pick
Everton -0.75 • Odds 1.98 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.