Derby
vs
Birmingham
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Birmingham are the model's most likely winner at 43.8%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Birmingham win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 43.8%
- Model fair odds
- 2.28
- Available odds
- 2.15
- Expected value
- -5.8%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Derby: P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury), F. Bilbija (Inactive), R. Brewster (Injury), M. Clarke (Calf Injury), C. Forsyth (Knee Injury), C. Morris (Calf Injury), D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury), L. Travis (Leg Injury)
- Birmingham: M. Bird (Inactive), T. Gardner-Hickman (Injury), M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury), J. E. Solis Romero (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D L W L L
- Away: D W D D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-21 · Derby · 1-0 · Birmingham
- 2025-12-26 · Birmingham · 1-1 · Derby
- 2022-01-30 · Derby · 2-2 · Birmingham
- 2021-09-10 · Birmingham · 2-0 · Derby
- 2021-04-24 · Derby · 1-2 · Birmingham
Match Preview
Derby’s recent spell has been hard to ignore for the wrong reasons. With one win, one draw and four defeats, they have lacked the consistency needed to make home advantage count. Birmingham arrive with a very different recent pattern, posting one win, four draws and one loss, which suggests a side that is harder to beat and better equipped to manage difficult away fixtures.
That stability is important here. Birmingham are not overwhelming opponents with constant victories, but they are staying in games and avoiding the kind of collapses that Derby have suffered. Derby’s injury situation only adds to the challenge, with P. Agyemang, F. Bilbija, R. Brewster, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, C. Morris, D. Murkin and L. Travis all unavailable. That is a long list for a team already short on confidence, and it makes control of the midfield and defensive transitions even more difficult.
The head-to-head record is mixed but useful. Derby beat Birmingham 1-0 in their most recent league meeting at Pride Park, while the sides also drew in Birmingham earlier in the cycle. So the fixture has not been one-sided, and Derby can point to recent success at this venue. But the broader trend now favours Birmingham’s steadiness, and this is not a Derby side in a position to rely on old habits.
The model sees the away side as the likelier winner, though not by a large margin, and that fits the feel of the contest. Birmingham are unlikely to race away with it, but their more dependable form and Derby’s injury load make them the better option over 90 minutes. If they keep the game controlled, they should be able to edge it.
ScoreCast Pick
Birmingham win • Odds 2.15 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.