Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Real Betis
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Real Betis are the model's most likely winner at 45.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Real Betis win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.20
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -6.9%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Deportivo La Coruna: Angelino (Red Card), N. Carrillo (Ankle Injury), Angelino (Red Card), N. Carrillo (Ankle Injury)
- Real Betis: D. Llorente (Broken nose), A. Ruibal (Knee Injury), D. Llorente (Broken nose), A. Ruibal (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W W D L
- Away: W L W W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2018-02-12 · Deportivo La Coruna · 0-1 · Real Betis
- 2017-09-16 · Real Betis · 2-1 · Deportivo La Coruna
- 2017-03-08 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 · Real Betis
- 2016-08-26 · Real Betis · 0-0 · Deportivo La Coruna
- 2016-02-13 · Deportivo La Coruna · 2-2 · Real Betis
Match Preview
Deportivo La Coruna and Real Betis meet in a La Liga fixture that already feels important for both clubs’ early momentum. Deportivo are seventh and have collected nine points from six matches, but Betis are third and have looked the more established side across the opening weeks.
Recent form leans toward the visitors. Deportivo’s record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss is respectable, yet it suggests a team that is hard to beat rather than one that is consistently taking control. Betis, by contrast, have 5 wins and 1 loss and have shown more punch in the final third. That attacking edge matters here, especially against a Deportivo side that has had to manage personnel problems.
The home side are missing Angelino through suspension after a red card, and that is the sort of setback that can shift a balanced contest. N. Carrillo is also questionable, while Betis have their own injuries with D. Llorente and A. Ruibal out, but their overall balance still looks healthier. They have been more reliable in recent matches, and they have carried themselves like a team capable of grinding out wins away from home.
The head-to-head record is also useful context. Betis have taken the last meeting at Riazor, and the recent history between the clubs includes narrow, competitive games rather than one-sided affairs. That points to a contest where small details matter, but it does not undermine Betis’ advantage; it reinforces that a disciplined, efficient away display can be enough.
The model sees this as a fairly close away-leaning match, which aligns with the football arguments as well. Deportivo can make life awkward, especially at home, but Betis have more consistent threat, better form and a stronger league position.
ScoreCast Pick
Real Betis win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.