Croatia
vs
England
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
England are the model's most likely winner at 51.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
England win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.94
- Available odds
- 1.85
- Expected value
- -4.9%
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L
- Away: L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-06-17 · England · 4-2 · Croatia
- 2021-06-13 · England · 1-0 · Croatia
- 2018-11-18 · England · 2-1 · Croatia
- 2018-10-12 · Croatia · 0-0 · England
- 2018-07-11 · Croatia · 2-1 · England
Match Preview
This is the most evenly balanced of the four fixtures, even if England arrive with the marginally stronger win probability. Croatia at home are rarely easy to break down, and their recent form is respectable enough to keep them competitive in a League A meeting of two established sides. England’s overall quality is obvious, but this is not a straightforward away day.
The head-to-head record between these teams has produced plenty of tension and, at times, very little to separate them. Croatia famously beat England after extra time in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, while England have since won one and drawn one in competitive meetings. More recently, England’s 4-2 win at the 2026 World Cup showed how dangerous they can be when games become stretched, but Croatia have also shown they can control the pace when the match becomes tactical.
The model forecast leans toward an England win, but it also expects goals at both ends more often than not. That fits the shape of the matchup: Croatia can create enough to threaten, while England’s attacking talent gives them multiple ways to find a breakthrough. The most likely scorelines include 1-1 and 1-2, which reinforces the idea of a contest decided by fine margins rather than domination.
Croatia’s best hope is to slow the game, compress the midfield and force England into lower-quality shots. England, meanwhile, will want to turn transitions into chances before Croatia settle. With no injuries reported, both managers can trust their core players, which usually helps the stronger side hold the initiative. Even so, the locked pick asks England to win outright, and that remains the call. The locked ScoreCast Pick is England win.
ScoreCast Pick
England win • Odds 1.85 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.