Club Queretaro
vs
Leon
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Club Queretaro are the model's most likely winner at 38.6%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Club Queretaro win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 38.6%
- Model fair odds
- 2.59
- Available odds
- 2.50
- Expected value
- -3.5%
Odds are valid as of September 19, 2026, 11:07 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D L W W
- Away: W W D L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-07 · Club Queretaro · 2-0 · Leon
- 2025-08-30 · Leon · 3-0 · Club Queretaro
- 2025-04-05 · Club Queretaro · 1-1 · Leon
- 2024-10-26 · Leon · 4-0 · Club Queretaro
- 2024-04-06 · Leon · 0-2 · Club Queretaro
Match Preview
Club Queretaro and Leon come into this Apertura clash in similar shape, but Queretaro’s home setting gives them the narrowest of edges. The hosts have posted 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, while Leon have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, so there is not much between them on raw recent results. That makes the venue and matchup history especially important.
At home, Queretaro have already shown they can frustrate Leon. They beat them 2-0 in Santiago de Queretaro earlier this year, and the more recent meetings have tended to be competitive rather than one-sided. Leon did win emphatically on their own ground in the past, but the balance of the series is not enough to outweigh the current context, where Queretaro look slightly more settled.
The standings also support a close contest. Both clubs sit on 13 points, but Queretaro’s superior goal difference suggests a little more stability. They are not pulling away from Leon, yet they have been just a touch more efficient in the opening part of the campaign. In a league as compact as Liga MX, that small edge can matter.
The model’s score outlook reflects how balanced this fixture could be, with the home side only marginally ahead and a draw very much in play. BTTS is also more likely than not, which fits the idea of an open game rather than a controlled one. Even so, Queretaro’s home record in this matchup and Leon’s extra defeat this season tilt the lean toward the hosts.
This is not a case for overconfidence, but it is a case for trusting the side with the better local history and slightly cleaner overall profile. Queretaro should have enough to edge it if they reproduce their recent intensity at La Corregidora.
ScoreCast Pick
Club Queretaro win • Odds 2.50 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 19, 2026, 11:07 CET.