Chicago Fire
vs
New England Revolution
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Chicago Fire are the model's most likely winner at 52.6%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Chicago Fire win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.90
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -5.4%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:00 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Chicago Fire: J. Bamba (Lower-Body Injury), A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury), J. Bamba (Lower-Body Injury), A. Franco (Knee Injury), M. Mbokazi (Lower-Body Injury)
- New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Wynder (Inactive), A. Yusuf (Injury), L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), J. Wynder (Inactive), A. Yusuf (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D D D D
- Away: W D W L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-10-18 · New England Revolution · 2-2 · Chicago Fire
- 2025-09-07 · Chicago Fire · 3-2 · New England Revolution
- 2025-05-20 · New England Revolution · 1-3 · Chicago Fire
- 2024-05-05 · Chicago Fire · 0-1 · New England Revolution
- 2024-03-23 · New England Revolution · 1-1 · Chicago Fire
Match Preview
Chicago Fire return home needing to turn a solid season into another valuable result, and the matchup gives them a fair chance. Their 11 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses show a side that has been competitive more often than not, especially at Soldier Field. New England Revolution are close enough in the standings to keep this honest, but their away record is less convincing, and that can matter in a fixture where momentum often swings quickly.
Chicago’s home record is one of the main reasons to favour them. They have been productive in attack and generally capable of controlling long stretches at home, even when the game opens up. New England have enjoyed a decent campaign themselves, yet their away form has not always matched their overall standing. They can score, but they are not always easy to trust in a high-tempo road match against a team that brings more natural home comfort.
Both squads arrive with injury concerns. Chicago are missing J. Bamba, A. Franco and M. Mbokazi, while New England are without L. Campana and J. Wynder, with A. Yusuf questionable. Those absences trim some attacking and structural options, and they slightly increase the chance of a messy, swingy contest rather than a polished display. That said, Chicago’s home environment and slightly stronger control in this fixture still point in their direction.
The head-to-head record is another useful guide. These teams have produced some open, competitive meetings, but Chicago have already beaten New England in recent seasons and also held them in a draw on the road. That history suggests Chicago know how to handle this opponent when the balance of the game becomes tight.
The most likely outcome is a Chicago Fire win, though it is fair to expect New England to make them work for it. The locked ScoreCast Pick is Chicago Fire win.
ScoreCast Pick
Chicago Fire win • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:00 CET.