Charlton
vs
Portsmouth
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Charlton are the model's most likely winner at 36.2%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Charlton win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 36.2%
- Model fair odds
- 2.76
- Available odds
- 2.75
- Expected value
- -0.5%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Charlton: J. Edwards (Ankle Injury), M. Godden (Muscle Injury), C. Kelman (Shoulder Injury), B. Koumetio (Muscle Injury), W. Mannion (Shoulder Injury), K. Ramsay (Ankle Injury), C. Sichenje (Knee Injury), N. Chalobah (Muscle Injury)
- Portsmouth: K. Anderson (Muscle Injury), M. Kosznovszky (Knee Injury), J. Murphy (Injury), C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W D L D
- Away: L W L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-17 · Charlton · 1-3 · Portsmouth
- 2025-12-29 · Portsmouth · 2-1 · Charlton
- 2024-08-03 · Charlton · 2-0 · Portsmouth
- 2024-02-24 · Charlton · 0-0 · Portsmouth
- 2023-11-11 · Portsmouth · 2-2 · Charlton
Match Preview
Charlton enter this match with a stronger overall platform than Portsmouth, and that is enough to justify confidence in the home side. Their form of three wins, two draws and one loss is healthy, and they sit higher in the table as a consequence. Portsmouth, by contrast, have been more erratic, with two wins and three defeats, which makes them harder to trust when facing a side with a bit more cohesion.
Charlton’s home record is a particular reason for optimism. They have shown the ability to control matches at The Valley, and while they do not always blow teams away, they tend to keep themselves in the right areas of the pitch long enough to make pressure count. Portsmouth have attacking moments, but they have also conceded too often to feel secure travelling to a side in better rhythm. Charlton’s injury list is long, which is the main caution here, with J. Edwards, M. Godden, C. Kelman, B. Koumetio, W. Mannion, K. Ramsay and C. Sichenje all unavailable, plus N. Chalobah doubtful. That is a real dent in depth and continuity.
Even so, the head-to-head record still gives Charlton reasons to believe. They beat Portsmouth 2-0 in a friendly and have shown before that this is a fixture they can make awkward. Portsmouth did win the more recent league meeting, so there is no easy narrative here, but Charlton’s stronger current standing and more reliable week-to-week form point back toward the hosts.
The model’s lean is not overwhelming, which matches the profile of the game. It looks competitive, and Portsmouth are capable of making it scrappy, but Charlton’s home advantage and better balance should prove decisive over 90 minutes.
ScoreCast Pick
Charlton win • Odds 2.75 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.