Celtic
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Celtic are the model's most likely winner at 57.0%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Celtic -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 15, 2026, 11:43 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Celtic: Jota (Knee Injury), S. Mheuka (Off the roster), C. Osmand (Inactive), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card), J. van den Berg (Off the roster), L. Emenalo (Injury), Jota (Knee Injury), S. Mheuka (Off the roster), C. Osmand (Inactive), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card)
- Ferencvarosi TC: B. Otvos (Knee Injury), I. Pappoe (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Away: D W D W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2021-11-04 · Ferencvarosi TC · 2-3 · Celtic
- 2021-10-19 · Celtic · 2-0 · Ferencvarosi TC
- 2020-08-26 · Celtic · 1-2 · Ferencvarosi TC
Match Preview
Celtic begin their Europa League league-stage campaign at home to Ferencvarosi TC, and this is the sort of fixture where Parkhead can matter immediately. Celtic have the stronger natural home edge, the better historical standing in this matchup, and the kind of attacking profile that usually forces visiting teams into long defensive stretches.
The head-to-head record is useful here. Celtic have already beaten Ferencvarosi at home in Europe and won an away meeting as well, while the Hungarians also have a victory in the broader series. That tells us the visitors are not negligible, but it also reinforces that Celtic have repeatedly found ways to deal with them in meaningful European games. With the match being played in Glasgow, the environment only strengthens that case.
Celtic also arrive with a few personnel issues, including the suspension of A. Oxlade-Chamberlain and the loss of Jota, but the side still carries enough quality to dictate tempo. Ferencvarosi’s form is excellent, with six wins and two draws, so they should not be dismissed lightly. Still, away trips to this kind of venue tend to expose teams that are used to controlling games domestically but must now defend longer phases against higher-calibre pressure.
The forecast leans toward a home win with goals, and that fits the general shape of the matchup. Celtic are the side more likely to establish momentum early and build pressure through the second half, where a margin can open up if Ferencvarosi are forced to chase. This looks more like a game where Celtic’s intensity and home advantage translate into a comfortable result than one where the visitors dictate terms. Celtic -0.75.
ScoreCast Pick
Celtic -0.75 • Odds 1.85 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 15, 2026, 11:43 CET.