Bosnia & Herzegovina
vs
Sweden
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Sweden are the model's most likely winner at 45.5%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Sweden win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.5%
- Model fair odds
- 2.20
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -6.6%
Odds are valid as of September 30, 2026, 12:50 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W
- Away: W W
Match Preview
Sweden head into this League B meeting with the steadier recent results, and that matters in a group game where early momentum can shape the campaign. Bosnia & Herzegovina have made a respectable start, but their two-match sample reads as a side still searching for rhythm rather than one consistently controlling games. Sweden’s cleaner form line and slightly stronger overall profile give them the more convincing case.
The setting also nudges the balance toward the visitors. Bosnia at home are never an easy assignment, especially in a competitive Nations League fixture, but Sweden are the type of opponent who can manage pressure, keep their shape, and punish lapses when the game opens up. The projected scoring picture points to a relatively open encounter, with both sides likely to find some attacking moments rather than a locked-down chess match.
That is where Sweden’s edge becomes useful. Their attacking projection is a touch stronger, and the most likely score profile suggests they are the more probable side to land the decisive goal. At the same time, Bosnia’s home advantage and the model’s expectation of a fairly lively game mean this should not be treated as a straightforward stroll. A narrow win feels more plausible than anything dramatic.
With no major injury distractions shaping the selection, form and matchup dynamics do most of the talking here. Sweden look marginally sharper, marginally more reliable, and just a little better equipped for a tense away assignment. Game management, substitutions and set pieces may also influence how the contest develops after the opening exchanges.
ScoreCast Pick
Sweden win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 30, 2026, 12:50 CET.