Bologna
vs
Torino
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Bologna are the model's most likely winner at 50.1%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Torino or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 49.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.00
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -8.6%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Bologna: A. Dovbyk (Muscle Injury), R. Orsolini (Injury), O. El Azzouzi (Thigh Injury), N. Zortea (Hip Injury), A. Dovbyk (Muscle Injury), R. Orsolini (Injury), O. El Azzouzi (Thigh Injury), N. Zortea (Hip Injury)
- Torino: C. Adams (Muscle Injury), F. Israel (Shoulder Injury), P. Pellegri (Knee Injury), C. Casadei (Rest)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L
- Away: L L W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-15 · Torino · 1-2 · Bologna
- 2025-10-29 · Bologna · 0-0 · Torino
- 2025-02-14 · Bologna · 3-2 · Torino
- 2024-12-21 · Torino · 0-2 · Bologna
- 2024-05-03 · Torino · 0-0 · Bologna
Match Preview
Bologna meet Torino in a Serie A clash where neither side arrives with much momentum, but the home team still carries the stronger historical case. Bologna’s recent run has been poor, with just one draw and three defeats, and the injury list is awkward enough to blunt some attacking rhythm. A. Dovbyk and R. Orsolini are both unavailable, while O. El Azzouzi and N. Zortea remain uncertain. That matters, because Bologna have needed sharp moments to turn territory into chances, and without key creators they may have to work harder for every opening.
Torino are hardly in ideal shape either, coming in with one win and three losses. They also have several absences, including C. Adams, F. Israel and P. Pellegri, with C. Casadei a possible doubt. Yet Torino have shown enough resistance in the head-to-heads to make this uncomfortable for Bologna. The teams drew 0-0 in Bologna last season, and Torino also pushed them hard in a 2-1 loss away from home. That points to a competitive fixture rather than a straightforward home win.
The broader numbers lean slightly toward Bologna at the San Siro-style margin of control, but the match profile is not especially convincing for a clean, dominant home performance. The model’s most likely scoreline cluster sits around 1-0 and 1-1, which fits a game shaped by caution, absences and limited attacking fluency. With both teams struggling for consistency, a narrow, tense outcome feels more realistic than an open affair.
Bologna may still have enough to edge the football terms of the game, but Torino’s away resilience and the recent stalemate in this pairing keep the door open for them to avoid defeat.
ScoreCast Pick
Torino or Draw • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.