Benin
vs
Mauritania
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Benin are the model's most likely winner at 41.7%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors at least one clean sheet.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.0% | 13.3% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Mauritania win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 29.1%
- Model fair odds
- 3.44
- Available odds
- 3.20
- Expected value
- -7.0%
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D
- Away: W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2019-06-18 · Benin · 3-1 · Mauritania
- 2019-06-11 · Benin · Mauritania
- 2017-03-24 · Mauritania · 1-0 · Benin
Match Preview
Benin host Mauritania in a qualifier that feels far from straightforward. The recent head-to-heads are sparse, but the two older friendlies offer a useful reminder: Benin won 3-1 at home in 2019, while Mauritania edged a 1-0 in Nouakchott two years earlier. That split mirrors the uncertainty around this meeting, where neither side arrives with a dominant profile.
Benin’s latest result was a draw, and that is not the kind of form that gives a home side much breathing room. Mauritania, by contrast, come in with a win and a more positive recent tone. They have looked the more decisive team in their latest outing, and that can matter in a group-stage game where confidence often decides who takes the initiative early.
Still, Benin cannot be dismissed at home. Their structure is usually compact, and the model points to a contest with relatively modest goal totals, which suits a team capable of keeping things close and waiting for a moment. Mauritania may have the sharper recent edge, but this is not a matchup where either side can assume control. The broader statistical picture suggests a low-tempo, balanced game, and that kind of setting often brings the underdog into the conversation for longer than expected.
The most likely score shapes are narrow, and that makes the selected angle understandable even though it asks more of Mauritania than the base 1X2 lean. Benin can be stubborn, but Mauritania’s better recent punch and slightly healthier attacking rhythm give them a live chance to nick it.
With the margins so fine, backing Mauritania to take the result is a bold but coherent call in a game that may be decided by one clean attacking sequence.
ScoreCast Pick
Mauritania win • Odds 3.20 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.