Belarus
vs
San Marino
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Belarus are the model's most likely winner at 73.0%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors at least one clean sheet.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Belarus -2.5
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 26.7%
- Model fair odds
- 3.75
- Available odds
- 1.90
- Expected value
- -49.3%
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L D
- Away: L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2018-11-18 · San Marino · 0-2 · Belarus
- 2018-09-08 · Belarus · 5-0 · San Marino
Match Preview
Belarus should approach this League C fixture as a chance to take control early and keep pressure on a fragile San Marino side. The form line already separates the teams: Belarus have at least shown some resilience with a draw and a loss, while San Marino remain stuck in consecutive defeats. In a matchup like this, that gap in stability often matters more than raw possession.
The head-to-head evidence is especially persuasive. Belarus beat San Marino 5-0 at home in the Nations League and also won 2-0 away in the return meeting. Those results show a clear pattern: Belarus have been able to control territory, create repeated chances and keep the game away from any kind of scramble. That is exactly the kind of profile that points toward a comfortable home victory.
The model forecast backs up Belarus as the stronger side, with a projected home total above two goals and San Marino limited to a low attacking output. The most likely scores are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, which suggests Belarus should have enough to win cleanly if they convert early pressure. That said, the locked handicap asks for a bigger margin than the base home-win expectation, so execution in the final third becomes important.
San Marino rarely threaten away from home and are likely to spend long periods in survival mode. If Belarus keep the tempo high and avoid wasteful finishing, the game could open up in the second half. With no injury concerns to complicate the picture, Belarus have the better blend of physicality and attacking depth. The locked ScoreCast Pick is Belarus -2.5.
ScoreCast Pick
Belarus -2.5 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.