Auxerre
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Stade Brestois 29 are the model's most likely winner at 39.6%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Stade Brestois 29 win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 39.6%
- Model fair odds
- 2.52
- Available odds
- 2.45
- Expected value
- -2.9%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Auxerre: A. Diousse (Knee Injury), B. Okoh (Knee Injury), M. Senaya (Injury), T. Siwe (Muscle Injury), S. Fofana (Groin Injury), A. Diousse (Knee Injury), B. Okoh (Knee Injury)
- Stade Brestois 29: B. Chardonnet (Calf Injury), N. Edjouma (Muscle Injury), M. Balde (Injury), R. Cagnon (Shoulder Injury), M. Diambou (Ankle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L W
- Away: D D W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-21 · Auxerre · 3-0 · Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-01-04 · Stade Brestois 29 · 2-0 · Auxerre
- 2025-02-14 · Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 · Auxerre
- 2024-09-27 · Auxerre · 3-0 · Stade Brestois 29
- 2023-05-14 · Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 · Auxerre
Match Preview
Auxerre face Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 clash that already carries the feel of a difficult afternoon for the home side. Auxerre’s recent record of 1 win and 3 losses tells the story of a team still searching for control, and the defensive numbers are especially worrying. Conceding heavily across the early part of the campaign has left them vulnerable whenever opponents sustain pressure, and that is a dangerous place to be against a Brest side that has looked more balanced.
Stade Brestois 29 come in with a steadier run of 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss, and that kind of consistency is often enough to decide these early-season league games. They are not free-scoring, but they look more composed in both boxes, and the projected balance of the match is close enough to make the away win the most attractive call. Brest have also navigated a tougher-looking spell more effectively than Auxerre, who are carrying several absences and a question mark over some fitness issues.
The head-to-head record adds useful context. Auxerre’s 3-0 home win in the most recent meeting is a reminder that this fixture can swing dramatically, but Brest were the better side in the return match and have generally handled the matchup well enough to avoid fear. In a game where both teams have shown enough defensive fragility, the team with the steadier shape and more reliable recent form tends to matter most.
The model sees a fairly even contest, but slightly favours Brest across the 90 minutes, which fits the overall picture of a side with greater control and fewer warning signs. Auxerre may compete for spells, yet the stronger side to trust remains Stade Brestois 29, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is Stade Brestois 29 win.
ScoreCast Pick
Stade Brestois 29 win • Odds 2.45 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.