Atletico Madrid
vs
Real Madrid
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Real Madrid are the model's most likely winner at 49.3%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Atletico Madrid or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.97
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -8.7%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Atletico Madrid: J. Alvarez (Muscle Injury), P. Barrios (Muscle Injury), A. Sorloth (Muscle Injury), J. Alvarez (Muscle Injury), P. Barrios (Muscle Injury), A. Sorloth (Muscle Injury)
- Real Madrid: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury), F. Mendy (Hip Injury), Rodrygo (Knee Injury), Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury), F. Mendy (Hip Injury), Rodrygo (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W L W W
- Away: W W L W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-22 · Real Madrid · 3-2 · Atletico Madrid
- 2026-01-08 · Atletico Madrid · 1-2 · Real Madrid
- 2025-09-27 · Atletico Madrid · 5-2 · Real Madrid
- 2025-03-12 · Atletico Madrid · 1-0 · Real Madrid
- 2025-03-04 · Real Madrid · 2-1 · Atletico Madrid
Match Preview
This Madrid derby arrives with both sides in respectable early-season shape, and the table reflects how narrow the gap remains. Real Madrid sit just above Atletico, but not by a margin that removes doubt, especially in a rivalry that regularly ignores form and reputation.
Atletico’s recent numbers are solid enough: four wins, one draw and one loss. Their home record matters here, and they have also shown a habit of competing well in tight, high-pressure matches. Even so, missing J. Alvarez, P. Barrios and A. Sorloth dents their attacking options and reduces the margin for error. Diego Simeone’s side can still make this awkward, but they may have to do more with less in the final third.
Real Madrid arrive with five wins and one defeat, a stronger run and a bit more cutting edge. Their league position and overall attacking output suggest they can hurt Atletico, but they are not untouched either. Absences such as Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo take some shine off their balance, particularly at the back and in transition. That helps explain why this has the feel of a match where control can swing quickly.
The head-to-head record leans Real’s way in recent competitive meetings, including a 3-2 league win in March, but Atletico also know they can land a punch of their own, as shown by the 5-2 home victory earlier in the campaign. In other words, the derby pattern is lively rather than settled.
The model’s most likely outcome is a Real Madrid win, yet the locked selection asks Atletico to avoid defeat, which is a slightly more conservative stance. That is fair in a game where the draw remains a genuine live option. Atletico Madrid or Draw.
ScoreCast Pick
Atletico Madrid or Draw • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.