AS Roma
vs
Inter
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
AS Roma are the model's most likely winner at 37.9%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
AS Roma win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 37.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.64
- Available odds
- 2.62
- Expected value
- -0.8%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- AS Roma: M. Bah (Knee Injury), E. Ndicka (Illness), M. Bah (Knee Injury), E. Ndicka (Illness)
- Inter: H. Calhanoglu (Muscle Injury), D. Spence (Injury), F. Stante (Injury), J. Stones (Injury), H. Calhanoglu (Muscle Injury), D. Spence (Injury), F. Stante (Injury), J. Stones (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W W W
- Away: W W W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-05 · Inter · 5-2 · AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma · 0-1 · Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter · 0-1 · AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma · 0-1 · Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma · 2-4 · Inter
Match Preview
AS Roma and Inter arrive at this early-season meeting in excellent shape, both sitting on four wins from four and level on points near the top of the table. Roma’s superior goal difference underlines how sharp they have been in both boxes, while Inter have also started with real authority and remain a serious benchmark in Serie A.
This is the kind of fixture that often turns on small details rather than broad momentum. Roma have the home advantage, and that matters in a match between two sides that have handled the opening weeks so well. Inter, though, have recent head-to-head momentum, including a 5-2 win in this exact matchup earlier this year and a narrow 1-0 success in Rome before that. Those results remind us how difficult this contest can become for the hosts if Inter control midfield and transition cleanly.
The injury picture is not ideal for either side. Roma are without M. Bah and E. Ndicka, which trims defensive depth, while Inter are missing H. Calhanoglu and D. Spence, with a couple more names carrying doubt. That absence list could affect the balance of the game more than the overall quality, especially with both sides already looking settled and productive.
The most likely outcome is a Roma win, but only by a narrow margin in a game that could easily swing either way. The forecast also points to goals at both ends being very plausible, which fits the recent head-to-head pattern and the attacking confidence of both clubs. Roma may just have enough at home to edge it, though Inter’s quality means this is far from straightforward.
ScoreCast Pick
AS Roma win • Odds 2.62 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.