Arda Kardzhali
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Arda Kardzhali are the model's most likely winner at 53.8%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Arda Kardzhali win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 53.8%
- Model fair odds
- 1.86
- Available odds
- 1.75
- Expected value
- -5.8%
Odds are valid as of August 15, 2026, 07:18 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W L W
- Away: D L D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-11-28 · Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-0 · Arda Kardzhali
- 2025-07-27 · Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2025-04-13 · Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2024-11-02 · Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-2 · Arda Kardzhali
- 2023-12-09 · Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-1 · Arda Kardzhali
Match Preview
Arda Kardzhali come into this Bulgarian First League meeting looking far better equipped than Lokomotiv Sofia. The form contrast is clear: Arda have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, while Lokomotiv Sofia have only 2 draws and 2 losses. In a league where early points can quickly separate the steady sides from the scrappers, that is a meaningful gap.
The table reinforces the same story. Arda are already sitting in the upper half after a solid start, while Lokomotiv Sofia are down near the bottom and still searching for rhythm. That matters because it suggests not just a short-term spell of good or bad results, but a broader difference in stability and confidence.
Head-to-head evidence is also firmly on Arda’s side. They won 2-0 in Sofia last season and had previously produced a 5-0 home demolition of Lokomotiv. Even the more cautious meetings, such as the 1-1 draw at Arena Arda, did little to change the sense that Arda tend to carry the better attacking threat in this pairing.
The model points the same way, with Arda rated the likeliest winner and a score profile that leans toward a controlled home performance. Importantly, this is not being framed as a runaway; Lokomotiv have enough survival instinct to make the game awkward at times. But the visitors’ current lack of winning form and Arda’s stronger recent record give the home side a solid base.
With home advantage, the better run of results, and the better recent matchup history all working together, Arda Kardzhali look like the safer call.
Arda Kardzhali win
ScoreCast Pick
Arda Kardzhali win • Odds 1.75 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of August 15, 2026, 07:18 CET.