AIK Stockholm
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
AIK Stockholm are the model's most likely winner at 47.9%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
AIK Stockholm win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 48.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.08
- Available odds
- 2.00
- Expected value
- -4.1%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- AIK Stockholm: T. Ayari (Calf Injury), I. Cisse (Ankle Injury), M. Ellingsen (Injury), F. Nissen (Injury), S. Papagiannopoulos (Injury), C. Pavey (Groin Injury), A. Redkin (Knee Injury), D. Tomas (Inactive), O. S. Wilson (Groin Injury)
- Vasteras SK FK: T. Axel (Yellow Cards), M. Keita (Inactive), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W W W D
- Away: W L D W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-06-28 · AIK Stockholm · 3-2 · Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-05-17 · Vasteras SK FK · 1-1 · AIK Stockholm
- 2026-02-22 · AIK Stockholm · 0-2 · Vasteras SK FK
- 2024-08-03 · Vasteras SK FK · 1-2 · AIK Stockholm
- 2024-04-01 · AIK Stockholm · 1-0 · Vasteras SK FK
Match Preview
AIK Stockholm return to league action as the more established side, but this is not a straightforward home banker. Their season has been solid, with 9 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, and they remain well placed near the top end of the table. Vasteras SK FK are only a step behind on points and have enough from their own campaign to suggest they can make life awkward, even if AIK hold the overall quality edge.
The recent head-to-head record is useful here. AIK were beaten by Vasteras in the Svenska Cupen earlier this year, but they responded with a 1-1 league draw away and a 3-2 friendly win. That mix says the matchup is usually competitive, yet AIK do have enough attacking threat to break through. At home, with the crowd behind them, they should be more likely to dictate tempo and territory.
AIK do carry a longer injury list, and that is the main reason this is not being framed as a comfortable win. Several absences across midfield and defence can affect stability, especially against a side that tends to be direct and willing to attack space. Still, AIK’s overall league numbers remain stronger, and their recent home-to-away balance is encouraging. Vasteras have been capable, but they have also shown vulnerability, particularly when asked to defend for long periods.
The model’s most likely scoreline is a draw, 1-1, which is a fair reflection of how often these teams can cancel each other out. Even so, AIK’s superior home presence and stronger attacking platform make them the side most likely to come through over 90 minutes. The margin may be narrow, and the game may stay open for longer than AIK fans would like, but the home team still has the more convincing case.
ScoreCast Pick
AIK Stockholm win • Odds 2.00 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.