ADO Den Haag
vs
Cambuur
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
ADO Den Haag are the model's most likely winner at 53.7%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Cambuur or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 46.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.16
- Available odds
- 1.95
- Expected value
- -9.7%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- ADO Den Haag: C. Peupion (Knee Injury), M. Jimenez (Injury), C. Peupion (Knee Injury), M. Jimenez (Injury)
- Cambuur: W. Asselman (Inactive), D. Visser (Knee Injury), I. Hamache (Injury), W. Asselman (Inactive), D. Visser (Knee Injury), I. Hamache (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L L
- Away: L L L D W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-01-16 · ADO Den Haag · 1-2 · Cambuur
- 2025-11-21 · Cambuur · 2-0 · ADO Den Haag
- 2025-05-02 · ADO Den Haag · 3-4 · Cambuur
- 2024-12-07 · Cambuur · 2-1 · ADO Den Haag
- 2024-10-29 · ADO Den Haag · 1-4 · Cambuur
Match Preview
This is the kind of game that can quickly turn on momentum rather than reputation. ADO Den Haag enter with a miserable league run, while Cambuur have hardly looked secure themselves, making this an awkward fixture for anyone expecting a straightforward edge. On paper, ADO’s home advantage should matter, but the numbers around both teams suggest neither arrives with much defensive certainty.
ADO’s recent form is the biggest concern in the match. A string of defeats has left them struggling for rhythm, and their back line has been too easy to expose. Cambuur have been more varied, with a little more life in their results and enough attacking output to stay competitive, but they have also conceded heavily in periods and have not travelled with real consistency. That makes the away side interesting, but not dominant.
The injury list offers little comfort for either camp. ADO are missing C. Peupion and may also be without M. Jimenez, while Cambuur have absences of their own, including W. Asselman and D. Visser, plus doubts over I. Hamache. Those gaps are particularly relevant in a game where continuity and defensive organisation could be decisive.
Head-to-head history also leans toward tight margins and a degree of away confidence. Cambuur have had the better of recent meetings more often than not, including wins in league and cup competition, and that will give them belief even at a difficult venue. Still, ADO’s desperation to halt the slide should not be underestimated, especially early in the season.
The most likely match pattern is one where both sides have moments and the scoreline stays open. The forecast points more toward a competitive, goal-friendly contest than a controlled home performance, so backing Cambuur or a draw fits the overall picture best. Cambuur or Draw.
ScoreCast Pick
Cambuur or Draw • Odds 1.95 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.